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苏州市碳排放达峰路径 优化与2050长期愿景

Carbon emissions peaking and the 2050 long-term strategy are the two key words of this report, and Suzhou has become one of the first cities in China to carry out long-term vision study. This study uses 2017 as the base year, first focusing on a sprint period between 2018 and 2020 during which the carbon emissions peak should occur. Here, we analyze emissions reduction measures advised for departments and sectors and formulate low-carbon plans to ensure a smooth process for achieving the emission peak. We also look at Suzhou’s development goals including the relocation and reform of major projects, the vision for “net-zero” emissions as proposed by the international community, in order to provide forecasts for Suzhou's mid- and long-term carbon emissions pathway from 2021 to 2050, assess the stability of maintaining peak emissions and long-term emissions trends as well as the possibility of achieving deep decarbonization.

Executive Summary

In the “Work Plan for Controlling Greenhouse Gas Emission during the 13th Five-Year Plan Period”, China proposed "first supporting developed areas in reaching peak carbon emissions". Suzhou is an important industrial city in the Yangtze River Delta and has always been at the forefront of low-carbon development, accumulating a wealth of experience. In the 2014 Suzhou Low-Carbon Development Plan, it was proposed that Suzhou should peak CO2 emissions by 2020, reaching a peak value of about 172 million tonnes, then steadily decreasing after a short period of fluctuation (2020-2025). It was also proposed that Suzhou's carbon emission intensity in 2020 should fall by more than 50% from 2005 levels, and that per capita carbon emissions should reach a turning point in 2017. Since 2014, Suzhou has carried out three rounds of emissions peak analysis, aiming to assess the current state of carbon emissions and the circumstances of a new stage of low-carbon development. These analyses also evaluated low-carbon measures and their effectiveness to ensure that Suzhou can reach its peak and explore pathways toward long-term deep decarbonization. Suzhou’s practices provide a valuable point of reference for other cities. The results of this study show that Suzhou will successfully achieve its carbon emissions peak in 2020 while also ensuring stable economic and social development. The total amount of CO2 emissions will reach approximately 163 million tonnes in 2020, after which it will enter a period of decline. Policy measures to ensure carbon emissions peak have focused on optimizing and adjusting industry structures and industrial systems. To achieve the goals a 1.5°C target for increases in global temperatures as outlined in the Paris Agreement and the long-term vision of global net-zero emissions, after ensuring that peak carbon emissions are achieved, more measures can be adopted. These include the promotion of non-fossil fuel based transportation and power generation technologies, the promotion of advanced low-carbon technologies such as integrated gasification combined cycle power generation systems (IGCC) and carbon dioxide capture and storage (CCS) in energy-intensive industries like power, steel, cement and chemicals, the relocation and renovation of large-scale iron, steel and chemical facilities as well as replacement of power generation units. These more radical measures could reduce Suzhou’s CO2 emissions to around 34 million tonnes by 2050, with per capita carbon emission of 2.8 tonnes and per unit GDP carbon emission of 0.05 tonnes/10,000 RMB.

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